South Africa Electricity Demand Forecast 2022-2050

USD $499

Product Description

The aim of the electricity demand forecast is to determine the present and future electricity requirements in terms of peak demand (MW) and energy (GWh) of the electrical end-users. APV have used a combination of econometric, time-series and probabilistic analyses to determine a cone which will represent the low, medium and high demand scenario forecasts for the system. The term “Demand Forecast” is used in its broader context and refers to future electricity sales, losses and production on an annual hourly basis over the modelling period.

This document contains the following key sections:

  1. Forecast Approach: High-level explanation of the document sections
  2. Energy Sales Forecast: This is the amount of electricity that is sold to customers, including:  residential customers, commercial customers (including commercial, small industrial customers, agricultural customers and public sector customers), Large Customers (including any major known step load changes) and Exports
  3. Energy Losses Forecast: This refers to the difference in the amount of electricity ‘injected’ by the generators into the integrated national system and the amount of energy metered and sold to the end customers.
  4. Energy Production Forecast: Means the energy to be produced (or procured) to meet the total of the energy sales forecast and losses.
  5. System Load Factor Forecast: The System Load Factor forecast is an estimate of the ratio between the actual energy produced (or consumed) and the energy that could have been produced (or consumed) had the output (or consumption) remained at the maximum for a period. This forecast is useful in converting the Energy Forecast into a Peak Demand Forecast
  6. Annual Peak Demand Forecast: This is an estimate of the maximum demand for power in any given hour over an annual period.
  7. Data Tables: The full time series for the Sales, Production and Peak Demand Forecast for the modelling period

About APV

APV specialises in power economics consulting and advisory services across sub-Saharan Africa. By assisting multiple stake holders in these regions, APV have built up a broad understanding of the real issues faced by governments, regulators, market participants and end-users. Our work spans the full breadth of the market from the high-level (policy, regulation, market design) to the detailed (end-user tariffs, trading strategies, demand forecasts, decarbonisation modelling). We work for clients across the value chain including governments, regulators, utilities, IPPs and end-users.